|
Alpha
Oct 21, 2005 16:10:45 GMT -5
Post by MdWx1 on Oct 21, 2005 16:10:45 GMT -5
ABNT20 KNHC 211532 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA... LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
FORECASTER KNABB
WWWW
|
|
|
Alpha
Oct 22, 2005 15:24:18 GMT -5
Post by kpoeppel on Oct 22, 2005 15:24:18 GMT -5
looks like it!
000 WTNT45 KNHC 221512 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH -80C COLD TOPS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION. NWS/SAN JUAN RADAR ALSO REVEALS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED ROTATION. ON THIS BASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE SEASON'S 25TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION... MORE THAN LIKELY THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 45 OR 50 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR SPREADS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AFTERWARD...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WHICH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH WILMA. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT ABSORPTION INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY 4.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/11. A LOW- TO MID- LAYER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS... AHEAD AND EAST OF THE APPROACHING HURRICANE WILMA AND A MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MID- LAYER MEAN GFS BAM.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA.
WITH THE REGULAR LIST OF NAMES EXHAUSTED... WE WOULD UTILIZE THE GREEK ALPHABET SHOULD THE DEPRESSION REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE FIRST NAME ON THIS LIST IS ALPHA.
|
|
|
Alpha
Oct 22, 2005 16:42:10 GMT -5
Post by MdWx1 on Oct 22, 2005 16:42:10 GMT -5
Alpha has formed. And it appears it will be very close to Wilma in the next day or two. Too bad the trough is gonna wipe them both away.
Also... say Alpha turns into a monster (not likely at this point) and causes carnage. I would assume they would retire the name... making the next time this happened start with Beta??
|
|