Post by dkeeley on Oct 9, 2005 18:43:06 GMT -5
HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005
IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION. MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS
VINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY. IN FACT... THE CIRA INTENSITY
ESTIMATE BASED ON THE EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 07Z WAS 50 KT AND
995 MB... SO VINCE WAS PROBABLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING
THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... METSAT-8
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH ABOUT
20 N MI DIAMETER HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI AS A BONA FIDE EYE. SOME
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS NOW DISCERNIBLE AROUND THE DEEP
CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN
IN MOST HURRICANES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE
FROM 3.5 TO 4.5... WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE BASED ON AN
EYE PATTERN. THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 65 KT. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE AS
STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CONVECTION MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER THE
23-24C SSTS... BUT WE HAVE NO DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES.
VINCE IS STILL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT VERY FAST... ABOUT
045/5... SO IT COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
WHILE ITS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGES LITTLE. VINCE
IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR RAMPS UP. A COLD FRONT IS SEVERAL
HUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF VINCE... AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... IT SHOULD PULL VINCE
NORTHEASTWARD AT A GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST THAT VINCE
WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... BUT IT COULD
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF VINCE TO
COMPLETELY LOSE ITS INDENTITY.
next up Wilma!
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005
IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION. MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS
VINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY. IN FACT... THE CIRA INTENSITY
ESTIMATE BASED ON THE EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 07Z WAS 50 KT AND
995 MB... SO VINCE WAS PROBABLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING
THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... METSAT-8
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH ABOUT
20 N MI DIAMETER HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI AS A BONA FIDE EYE. SOME
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS NOW DISCERNIBLE AROUND THE DEEP
CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN
IN MOST HURRICANES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE
FROM 3.5 TO 4.5... WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE BASED ON AN
EYE PATTERN. THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 65 KT. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE AS
STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CONVECTION MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER THE
23-24C SSTS... BUT WE HAVE NO DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES.
VINCE IS STILL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT VERY FAST... ABOUT
045/5... SO IT COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
WHILE ITS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGES LITTLE. VINCE
IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR RAMPS UP. A COLD FRONT IS SEVERAL
HUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF VINCE... AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... IT SHOULD PULL VINCE
NORTHEASTWARD AT A GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST THAT VINCE
WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... BUT IT COULD
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF VINCE TO
COMPLETELY LOSE ITS INDENTITY.
next up Wilma!
